POPULATION GROWTH
The Greatest Challenge on Earth?
In 1950 global population was 2 billion.
It now stands at 6.5 billion - and is likely to rise to between 8 and 10 billion by 2050.
The great majority of this growth will take place in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia.
It will increasingly hinder poverty alleviation, accelerate climate change, cause widespread environmental degradation and foment international conflict.
This is arguably the single most important challenge to the future of our planet.
A Worrying Verdict from Westminster
A Report on the impact of global population growth on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) was published by the UK All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health in January 2007.
Evidence was submitted for the Report by nearly 50 organizations from all over the world. They included UK and overseas government departments, United Nations agencies, the World Bank, World Health Organization and a wide range of Non Governmental Organizations, charities and academic bodies.
The Millennium Development Goals were established in 2000 through the United Nations by 189 governments as crucial targets of socio-economic and environmental progress to be achieved by 2015.
The Report concludes that the MDGs will be difficult or impossible to achieve with current levels of population increase in the least developed countries.
Key Findings from the Report
Poverty alleviation
- No country, with the exception of a few oil-rich states, has risen from poverty whilst still having high fertility rates - which also impact directly on levels of maternal and child mortality.
- One woman dies every minute from pregnancy related issues, yet 41% of pregnancies globally are unwanted.
- By preventing these, maternal mortality could fall 35% [ DFID - UK Government ]
- There is a direct correlation between high fertility and high child mortality rates [UN Economic Commission for Africa]
- Fewer, wider spaced births can reduce infant mortality by over 60% [ DFID - UK Government ]
Poverty is not inevitable. It is substantially determined by our decisions.
The rapid pace of population growth in much of Africa and some other parts of the world means, despite global efforts, that we are not succeeding in keeping the number of people living in extreme poverty stable [ UN Population Fund ].
In sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia the number of people living on less than $1 per day is rising.
Other Effects of Population Increase
Climate change
The greatest proportion of emissions currently comes from developed countries, which must urgently address the impact of their consumption levels. The USA with 4% of world population currently produces 25% of carbon emissions.
Nonetheless, most of the increase in greenhouse gases will come from carbon-fuelled developing economies where population is growing.
Environmental degradation
Degradation of farmland, deforestation, loss of species and habitats will accelerate. The UN estimates that two thirds of the world's population will face moderate to high water shortages by 2025.
Again, the impact of high consumption levels in the developed world contributes greatly to environmental problems. However rapid population growth in many developing countries will very significantly exacerbate these problems, and they must be supported in their efforts to grow sustainably.
"Growth in human population . . . has had more impact on biodiversity than any other single factor"
Sir David King, the UK Government Chief Scientific Advisor
Conflict
High rates of population growth can contribute to potential for civil conflict, where they involve pressure on limited land or water resources, mass migration and high rates of youth unemployment.
Migration
Poverty and population growth are closely related to increased migration. According to the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, the effects of climate change in developing countries, when combined with population growth, will exert significant pressure on migration rates.
And the Good News . . .
Economic Growth
If lower birth rates are achieved, this can enable greater savings, investment and productivity per capita - as has happened in East Asia. This in turn provides more resource for healthcare and education.
A Broad Consensus on the Population Issue
Views on the adverse impact of population increase are shared across the less developed world. Among governments of the 50 least developed nations, 80% felt their population growth was too high - none felt it was too low. [ 2005 UN Dept of Economic & Social Affairs ]
The Way Ahead
In many regions, the Millennium Development Goals are not attainable without greater focus on slowing population growth, through making voluntary family planning universally accessible and empowering women to access reproductive health services.
Decisions made now can influence whether or not population levels in 2050 are at the UN high projection of 10.5 billion, the medium of 9 billion or the low of 7.8 billion.
Addressing Unmet Need
Between 125 and 200 million people would like to be able to control their fertility. Many of them live in extreme poverty. They are denied a basic right of empowerment in their lives, by not being able to determine their family size because of inadequate resourcing of family planning and reproductive health services.
It is estimated that only 10% of funding needed from developed nations for family planning is actually being provided, at a time when unmet need is increasing.
Largely because of political and religious pressures, together with lack of emphasis on the adverse impact of population increase on poverty alleviation, over the last 10-15 years family planning programmes have stalled in many parts of the world.
"Eradication of extreme poverty.... cannot be achieved if questions of population and reproductive health are not squarely addressed"
Kofi Anan, UN Secretary General 1997 - 2006
Key Recommendations
The parliamentary Report concludes that universal access to family planning, as proposed in 1994 at the International Conference on Population and Development, is crucial to achieving the Millennium Development Goals.
It calls for a range of urgent measures:
- 10% of development aid allocated for population and reproductive health services
- Elimination of barriers to use of family planning
- More cost-effective use of available resources
- Greater cooperation between development, environment and health organizations
- The United Nations has now approved a new target of universal access to reproductive health care by 2015.
If - and only if - this declared intention is implemented on the ground, a giant step forward will have been taken towards addressing this vital issue with adequate funding allocation and policy priorities.
The Role of PSN
The 2007 WED Trust's London Concert is supporting the Population and Sustainability Network, which seeks to promote a higher funding and policy profile to ensure planning services are made available to those who need them.
PSN is a grouping of organizations that includes the UN Population Fund, the UK Department for International Development and the All Party Parliamentary Group at Westminster. In 2005 the Network proposed the parliamentary Hearings and played an active role in their development.
PSN is currently supporting replication of the Hearings process in the United States Congress and the European Union parliament, among other legislative bodies. It is also promoting programmes that involve poverty mitigation, climate change and biodiversity loss.